🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Walsall and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Walsall and Harrogate Town drew 2-2 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.60 xG and Harrogate Town 0.83 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Harrogate Town outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.27 / defence 1.23 against Harrogate Town attack 0.61 / defence 0.94, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 55% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 19%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 58%, Harrogate Town 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Walsall 1.56 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights