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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Walsall and Gillingham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall and Gillingham finished level at 2-2 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.11 xG and Gillingham 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Walsall beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gillingham outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Gillingham attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 41% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 28%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 46%, Gillingham 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Gillingham's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Walsall 1.59 PPG, Gillingham 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights