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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Walsall and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall and Gillingham finished level at 1-1 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 2.04 xG and Gillingham 0.85 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.49 / defence 1.06 against Gillingham attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 64% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 14%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 60%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Gillingham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Walsall 1.68 PPG, Gillingham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights