Walsall vs Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Bescot Stadium to face Walsall in League Two, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Walsall (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Walsall at Bescot Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crawley Town's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Walsall's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Walsall 1W, Crawley Town 1W, 6D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 49% versus Crawley Town 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 45% | Crawley Town 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.39 xG and Crawley Town 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.857 / defence 0.919 | Crawley Town attack 1.020 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.025. Data: 54 Walsall games / 53 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 44% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 23%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Crawley Town 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Walsall as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 40% | Crawley Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 44% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Walsall 1.39 / Crawley Town 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.857 / def 0.919 | Crawley Town attack 1.020 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Walsall (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Crawley Town xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Crawley Town kick off?
Walsall vs Crawley Town kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 October 2026 at Bescot Stadium.
Where is Walsall vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Crawley Town part of?
Walsall vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 44% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Walsall and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Crawley Town?
Record (8 meetings): Walsall 1W | Draws 6 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Walsall and Crawley Town in?
Walsall (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Walsall's attack at 0.86x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (1.02x) against Walsall's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
44%
2.28
33%
3.05
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
Crawley Town xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Walsall and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Walsall and 0.96 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Walsall have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 20W 16D 17L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 9W 17D 27L from 53 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Walsall are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Walsall have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 4W 7D 15L from 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.94 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 20W 16D 17L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 17D 27L in their last 53 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Crawley Town away?
Walsall's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.31 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Walsall or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Walsall have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Walsall
6
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Walsall have won 1, Crawley Town have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Walsall 0-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 42%, Crawley Town 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Walsall) and 46% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Walsall keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Walsall have failed to score in 42% of games; Crawley Town in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Walsall's recent matches and 42% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Walsall vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Walsall's recent games and 46% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Walsall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Walsall and Crawley Town drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.39 xG and Crawley Town 0.96 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Crawley Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Crawley Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 44% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 23%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 45%, Crawley Town 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.