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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colchester cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Walsall.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Walsall 0-2 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.32 xG and Colchester 1.09 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Colchester outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Colchester attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 42% | Draw 27% | Colchester 31%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Colchester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 49%, Colchester 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Colchester's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Walsall 1.74 PPG, Colchester 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights