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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Tranmere 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Tranmere 0-1 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 0.99 xG and Swindon Town 1.93 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tranmere fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Swindon Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.80 / defence 1.44 against Swindon Town attack 1.12 / defence 1.03, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 19% | Draw 22% | Swindon Town 59%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 50%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Swindon Town's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Swindon Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights