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Oldham cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oldham beat Tranmere 1-3 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.00 xG and Oldham 1.27 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Oldham outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Oldham attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 81/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 29% | Draw 28% | Oldham 42%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 58%, Oldham 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Oldham's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Oldham arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights