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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Notts County defy the odds to beat Tranmere 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Tranmere 1-2 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.53 xG and Notts County 1.03 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Notts County outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 1.18 / defence 0.88 against Notts County attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 49% | Draw 26% | Notts County 25%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Notts County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 42%, Notts County 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Notts County's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.18 PPG, Notts County 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights