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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Harrogate Town run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Tranmere 0-3 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.20 xG and Harrogate Town 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Tranmere fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Harrogate Town outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.86 / defence 1.34 against Harrogate Town attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 37% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 36%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Harrogate Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 49%, Harrogate Town 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.05 PPG, Harrogate Town 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights