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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tranmere and Grimsby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 46, as Tranmere and Grimsby drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 0.74 xG and Grimsby 1.87 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Grimsby landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.68 / defence 1.34 against Grimsby attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 14% | Draw 22% | Grimsby 64%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 50%, Grimsby 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Grimsby's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights