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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tranmere and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 28, as Tranmere and Gillingham drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.04 xG and Gillingham 0.84 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.86 / defence 0.99 against Gillingham attack 0.73 / defence 0.93, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 38% | Draw 34% | Gillingham 27%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 54%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Gillingham's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.17 PPG, Gillingham 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights