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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Crewe run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Tranmere 1-4 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.34 xG and Crewe 1.21 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Crewe attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 40% | Draw 27% | Crewe 33%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 48%, Crewe 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Crewe's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.18 PPG, Crewe 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights