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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tranmere cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tranmere beat Crawley Town 2-0 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.36 xG and Crawley Town 1.15 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.83 / defence 1.35 against Crawley Town attack 0.72 / defence 1.29, drawn from 76/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 42% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 32%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 49%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Crawley Town's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.09 PPG, Crawley Town 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights