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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Colchester edge out Tranmere 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Tranmere 0-1 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 0.91 xG and Colchester 1.30 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tranmere fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.75 / defence 1.37 against Colchester attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 26% | Draw 28% | Colchester 46%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 49%, Colchester 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Colchester's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.01 PPG, Colchester 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights