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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colchester cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Tranmere 1-3 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 0.96 xG and Colchester 0.93 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Colchester outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Colchester attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 33% | Draw 34% | Colchester 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Colchester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 55%, Colchester 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Colchester's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.14 PPG, Colchester 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights