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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tranmere and Chesterfield share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 14, as Tranmere and Chesterfield drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.54 xG and Chesterfield 1.28 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Chesterfield attack 1.11 / defence 1.35, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 44% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 32%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 45%, Chesterfield 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Chesterfield's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.12 PPG, Chesterfield 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights