🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Tranmere edge out Cheltenham 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tranmere beat Cheltenham 3-2 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.53 xG and Cheltenham 0.97 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Tranmere beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cheltenham outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Cheltenham attack 0.85 / defence 1.36, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 50% | Draw 26% | Cheltenham 24%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 44%, Cheltenham 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Cheltenham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.10 PPG, Cheltenham 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights