🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Tranmere cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cheltenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tranmere beat Cheltenham 2-0 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.18 xG and Cheltenham 1.24 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tranmere beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cheltenham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Cheltenham attack 1.11 / defence 1.19, drawn from 84/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 35% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 38%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Tranmere win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 51%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Cheltenham's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.12 PPG, Cheltenham 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.98 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights