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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bristol Rovers edge out Tranmere 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol Rovers beat Tranmere 1-2 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.01 xG and Bristol Rovers 1.45 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.68 / defence 1.33 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 88/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tranmere 26% | Draw 26% | Bristol Rovers 47%, with Bristol Rovers to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 48%, Bristol Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tranmere's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.00 PPG, Bristol Rovers 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights