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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Tranmere 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Tranmere 2-1 at County Ground, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.80 xG and Tranmere 1.55 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Tranmere attack 1.33 / defence 1.20, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 44% | Draw 23% | Tranmere 34%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 58%, Tranmere 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.47 PPG, Tranmere 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights