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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Swindon Town 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Swindon Town 2-3 at County Ground, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.29 xG and Salford City 1.06 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Salford City attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 42% | Draw 28% | Salford City 30%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 56%, Salford City 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.54 PPG, Salford City 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Swindon Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights