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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swindon Town and Salford City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town and Salford City finished level at 2-2 at The Nigel Eady County Ground, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.50 xG and Salford City 1.25 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.25 / defence 1.15 against Salford City attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 80/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 43% | Draw 25% | Salford City 32%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 63%, Salford City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.23 PPG, Salford City 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights