Swindon Town 1-2 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swindon Town vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swindon Town host Notts County at The Nigel Eady County Ground in League Two, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swindon Town stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Swindon Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Swindon Town's home record at The Nigel Eady County Ground: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Notts County have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Notts County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Notts County have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Swindon Town 1.20 PPG, Notts County 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Swindon Town have won 1, Notts County 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Swindon Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Notts County in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Swindon Town 69% and Notts County 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Swindon Town 69% | Notts County 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.23 xG and Notts County 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 0.926 / defence 1.364 | Notts County attack 0.957 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.234. Data: 49 Swindon Town games / 49 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 29% | Draw 25% | Notts County 46%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Notts County 2.17. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swindon Town 90% | Notts County 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Nigel Eady County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 29% | Draw 25% | Notts County 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Swindon Town 1.23 / Notts County 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 0.926 / def 1.364 | Notts County attack 0.957 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Notts County (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Notts County xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Notts County kick off?
Swindon Town vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at The Nigel Eady County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Notts County?
Swindon Town 1 - 2 Notts County.
Where is Swindon Town vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at The Nigel Eady County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Notts County part of?
Swindon Town vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 29% chance of winning, Notts County a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Swindon Town and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Notts County?
Record (2 meetings): Swindon Town 1W | Draws 0 | Notts County 1W.
What form are Swindon Town and Notts County in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Notts County (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swindon Town's attack rating (0.93) and Notts County's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
29%
3.44
25%
4.07
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.84
1.61
Notts County xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
6%
17.24
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.61 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swindon Town come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 14D 21L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Swindon Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.35 PPG from 49 outings (19W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.14 PPG, Notts County on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swindon Town's home form reads 11W 5D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Swindon Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swindon Town are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.94 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Notts County in 69%.
Last 49 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Early Season
Notts County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Notts County in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Notts County have gone 19W 9D 21L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Notts County away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.58 PPG; Notts County away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Swindon Town's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Swindon Town
1
Draws
4
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Notts County?
From 6 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 1, Notts County have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Notts County 2-1 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Swindon Town at 67%, Notts County at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Swindon Town and 62% for Notts County. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Swindon Town's games and 67% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swindon Town vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Swindon Town's matches and 62% of Notts County's.
Do Swindon Town and Notts County tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Notts County in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Swindon Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Swindon Town 1-2 at The Nigel Eady County Ground, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.23 xG and Notts County 1.61 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.36 against Notts County attack 0.96 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 29% | Draw 25% | Notts County 46%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 69%, Notts County 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.14 PPG, Notts County 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Swindon Town (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.