Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swindon Town's attack at 0.97x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
29%
3.49
24%
4.14
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
3.18
1.81
Fleetwood Town xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
5%
21.33
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.81 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.