Swindon Town 1-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swindon Town vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Crawley Town travel to The County Ground to take on Swindon Town. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swindon Town stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swindon Town have posted 3W 5D 2L at The County Ground — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Swindon Town 1.30 PPG, Crawley Town 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Swindon Town trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Crawley Town trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Swindon Town 73% and Crawley Town 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 54% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.25 xG and Crawley Town 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.074 / defence 1.226 | Crawley Town attack 0.926 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.132. Data: 26 Swindon Town games / 26 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 33% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 35%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Crawley Town 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swindon Town 70% | Crawley Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 33% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Swindon Town 1.25 / Crawley Town 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.074 / def 1.226 | Crawley Town attack 0.926 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Crawley Town xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Swindon Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Swindon Town 1 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Swindon Town vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 33% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Swindon Town and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swindon Town and Crawley Town in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Swindon Town's attack rating (1.07) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
33%
3.00
32%
3.15
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.54
1.29
Crawley Town xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.29 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swindon Town's recent record stands at 11W 9D 6L from 26 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 11L across 26 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.62 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Swindon Town have managed 3W 6D 3L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 6W 2D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swindon Town are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Crawley Town in 65%.
Last 26 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 11W 9D 6L in their last 26 games (1.62 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.25 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swindon Town and Crawley Town runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Swindon Town won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Swindon Town
2
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 3, Crawley Town have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-2 Swindon Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swindon Town see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 67%, Crawley Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swindon Town) and 42% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Swindon Town's games and 58% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swindon Town vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Swindon Town's recent games and 42% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The County Ground, Regular Season - 16, as Swindon Town and Crawley Town drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.25 xG and Crawley Town 1.29 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against Crawley Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 33% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 35%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 54%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.62 PPG, Crawley Town 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.