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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Cambridge United 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Cambridge United 3-2 at County Ground, Regular Season - 2, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.63 xG and Cambridge United 0.96 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambridge United outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against Cambridge United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 52% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 21%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 55%, Cambridge United 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights