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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers finished level at 1-1 at County Ground, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 2.06 xG and Bristol Rovers 0.78 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Swindon Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.70 / defence 1.35, drawn from 80/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 67% | Draw 20% | Bristol Rovers 13%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 60%, Bristol Rovers 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights