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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Bradford 5-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Bradford 5-4 at The Nigel Eady County Ground, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.38 xG and Bradford 0.92 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bradford outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.24 / defence 1.14 against Bradford attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 47% | Draw 28% | Bradford 25%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 64%, Bradford 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Bradford's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.24 PPG, Bradford 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights