Sutton Utd 1-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sutton Utd vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 43 as Sutton Utd welcome Stockport County to VBS Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Sutton Utd have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sutton Utd have posted 2W 5D 3L at VBS Community Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at VBS Community Stadium this season.
Stockport County — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League Two this season, Stockport County have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Sutton Utd) versus 1.60 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sutton Utd register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Stockport County in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Stockport County, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Sutton Utd.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–8 with Stockport County winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Stockport County have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sutton Utd trading profile (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 56% versus Stockport County 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 44% | Stockport County 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.37 xG and Stockport County 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 1.004 / defence 1.049 | Stockport County attack 1.228 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.286. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 88 Sutton Utd games / 86 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 31% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 44%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Stockport County 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sutton Utd 90% | Stockport County 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 31% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Sutton Utd 1.37 / Stockport County 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 1.004 / def 1.049 | Stockport County attack 1.228 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Stockport County xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Stockport County kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Sutton Utd 1 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Stockport County part of?
Sutton Utd vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 31% chance of winning, Stockport County a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sutton Utd and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Stockport County?
Record (3 meetings): Sutton Utd 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 3W.
What form are Sutton Utd and Stockport County in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Stockport County (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sutton Utd's attack rating (1.00) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Sutton Utd's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
31%
3.22
25%
3.93
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
3.03
1.66
Stockport County xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
6%
16.87
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 1.66 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sutton Utd's recent record stands at 24W 25D 39L from 88 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 45W 25D 18L across 88 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sutton Utd heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sutton Utd have managed 16W 13D 15L from 44 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 20W 11D 13L across 44 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sutton Utd are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.65 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 24W 25D 39L in their last 88 games (1.10 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 45W 25D 18L in their last 88 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 1.39 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Stockport County in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Stockport County won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sutton Utd's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sutton Utd
0
Draws
4
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 0, Stockport County have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Sutton Utd 1-3 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 59%, Stockport County 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sutton Utd) and 57% (Stockport County).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Sutton Utd's games and 59% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sutton Utd vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 57% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Stockport County tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sutton Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Sutton Utd 1-3 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.37 xG and Stockport County 1.66 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Stockport County attack 1.23 / defence 0.95, drawn from 88/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 31% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 44%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 44%, Stockport County 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.