Sutton Utd 2-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sutton Utd at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Harrogate Town travel to VBS Community Stadium to take on Sutton Utd. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sutton Utd have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sutton Utd's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at VBS Community Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VBS Community Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sutton Utd are significantly better at VBS Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Harrogate Town have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Harrogate Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Harrogate Town have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sutton Utd 1.40 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sutton Utd, 0 for Harrogate Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Sutton Utd winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sutton Utd trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 50% versus Harrogate Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 44% | Harrogate Town 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.53 xG and Harrogate Town 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 1.097 / defence 0.875 | Harrogate Town attack 0.961 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 0.994. Data: 52 Sutton Utd games / 52 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 54% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Harrogate Town 5.00. Sutton Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sutton Utd are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Sutton Utd 50% | Harrogate Town 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 54% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Sutton Utd 1.53 / Harrogate Town 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 1.097 / def 0.875 | Harrogate Town attack 0.961 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.286 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Harrogate Town xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Sutton Utd 2 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town part of?
Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 54% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town?
Record (2 meetings): Sutton Utd 2W | Draws 0 | Harrogate Town 0W.
What form are Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Harrogate Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sutton Utd's attack rating (1.10) and Harrogate Town's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Sutton Utd's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.88
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
2.37
0.84
Harrogate Town xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
22.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 0.84 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sutton Utd's recent record stands at 24W 12D 16L from 52 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sutton Utd, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Harrogate Town, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 24L across 52 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Harrogate Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sutton Utd by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Harrogate Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sutton Utd have managed 16W 6D 4L from 26 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Sutton Utd are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Harrogate Town's away record stands at 9W 4D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sutton Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sutton Utd are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.33 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Early Season
Harrogate Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 24W 12D 16L in their last 52 games (1.62 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Harrogate Town away?
Sutton Utd's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 2.08 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Harrogate Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Harrogate Town in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sutton Utd's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sutton Utd
1
Draws
1
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Harrogate Town 2-2 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 50%, Harrogate Town 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sutton Utd) and 58% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Harrogate Town in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sutton Utd's recent matches and 38% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 58% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sutton Utd edge out Harrogate Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Harrogate Town 2-1 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.53 xG and Harrogate Town 0.84 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against Harrogate Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 54% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 20%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 44%, Harrogate Town 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.