Stockport County 0-0 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stockport County at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Harrogate Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Harrogate Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League Two, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stockport County's overall League Two record this term: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games (0.88 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.88 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Harrogate Town have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Harrogate Town have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.88 PPG for Stockport County against 1.00 for Harrogate Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 75% versus Harrogate Town 12%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 62% | Harrogate Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.23 xG and Harrogate Town 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.864 / defence 1.071 | Harrogate Town attack 0.974 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.036. Data: 8 Stockport County games / 54 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 40% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 32%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Harrogate Town 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Harrogate Town 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 40% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Stockport County 1.23 / Harrogate Town 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.864 / def 1.071 | Harrogate Town attack 0.974 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Harrogate Town xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Stockport County vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Harrogate Town?
Stockport County 0 - 0 Harrogate Town.
Where is Stockport County vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Harrogate Town part of?
Stockport County vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 40% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stockport County and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Harrogate Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Harrogate Town in?
Stockport County (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (0.86) and Harrogate Town's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.97x) against Stockport County's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.50
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.31
1.08
Harrogate Town xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.08 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stockport County come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 1D 5L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Stockport County against 0.88 for Harrogate Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stockport County's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Stockport County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 0.75 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Harrogate Town in 12%.
Defensively: Harrogate Town in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Harrogate Town away?
Stockport County's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.75 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Harrogate Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Harrogate Town in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Harrogate Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Harrogate Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Stockport County 1-1 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Harrogate Town?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 50%, Harrogate Town 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Stockport County) and 50% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Harrogate Town in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stockport County's recent matches and 25% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Stockport County's recent games and 50% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stockport County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 10, as Stockport County and Harrogate Town drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.23 xG and Harrogate Town 1.08 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stockport County fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Harrogate Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Harrogate Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 40% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 32%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 62%, Harrogate Town 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 0.88 PPG, Harrogate Town 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.