Stockport County 2-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Crewe at Edgeley Park in League Two, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Edgeley Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Stockport County have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Crewe trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 55% versus Crewe 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 55% | Crewe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.33 xG and Crewe 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.989 / defence 1.054 | Crewe attack 0.682 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.071. Data: 20 Stockport County games / 19 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 50% | Draw 29% | Crewe 21%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Crewe 4.76. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Crewe 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 50% | Draw 29% | Crewe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Stockport County 1.33 / Crewe 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.989 / def 1.054 | Crewe attack 0.682 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Crewe xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Crewe kick off?
Stockport County vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Crewe?
Stockport County 2 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Stockport County vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Crewe part of?
Stockport County vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 50% chance of winning, Crewe a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stockport County and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Crewe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Crewe in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Crewe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 0.99x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.48
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.10
0.77
Crewe xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
6%
17.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.77 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stockport County come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 4D 8L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.40 PPG, Crewe on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stockport County's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.95 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Crewe in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Crewe in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while Crewe have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Crewe away?
Stockport County's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.50 PPG; Crewe away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Crewe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Crewe runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
1
Draws
1
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Crewe?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Crewe have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Stockport County 1-3 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Crewe?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 50%, Crewe 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stockport County) and 50% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Crewe in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stockport County's recent matches and 40% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stockport County's recent games and 50% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Crewe tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Crewe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Crewe 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.33 xG and Crewe 0.77 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Crewe attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 50% | Draw 29% | Crewe 21%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 55%, Crewe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crewe's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.40 PPG, Crewe 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.