Stockport County 2-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Carlisle at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 13 as Stockport County welcome Carlisle to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 25 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carlisle — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Carlisle have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Carlisle are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Carlisle in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stockport County 64% and Carlisle 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Carlisle 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 0.93 xG and Carlisle 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.795 / defence 1.185 | Carlisle attack 1.113 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.050. Stockport County's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Stockport County games / 60 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 25% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 47%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Carlisle 2.13. Carlisle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carlisle as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carlisle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 57% | Carlisle 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 25% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Stockport County 0.93 / Carlisle 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.795 / def 1.185 | Carlisle attack 1.113 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Carlisle xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Carlisle kick off?
Stockport County vs Carlisle kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Carlisle?
Stockport County 2 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Stockport County vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Carlisle part of?
Stockport County vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 25% chance of winning, Carlisle a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Stockport County and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Carlisle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Carlisle in?
Stockport County (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Carlisle (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (0.80) and Carlisle's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
25%
3.97
27%
3.66
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.31
1.38
Carlisle xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
6%
15.82
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.7 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.38 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 4W 3D 7L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carlisle's form line: 6W 6D 2L from 14 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Carlisle are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stockport County.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Stockport County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Carlisle have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Carlisle in 64%.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Carlisle in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 6W 6D 2L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Carlisle away?
Stockport County's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.50 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Carlisle in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Carlisle runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Carlisle?
From 3 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Carlisle have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when Carlisle 1-1 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Carlisle?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stockport County at 50%, Carlisle at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Stockport County and 50% for Carlisle.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Carlisle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stockport County's games and 83% of Carlisle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Stockport County's recent games and 50% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Carlisle tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Carlisle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Carlisle 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 0.93 xG and Carlisle 1.38 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carlisle landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against Carlisle attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 25% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 47%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Stockport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Carlisle 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Carlisle's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Carlisle arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Stockport County winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.