Stockport County 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 7 as Stockport County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 outings — a 0.67 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Stockport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 1W 1D 1L at Edgeley Park — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.67 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.67 PPG (Stockport County) versus 1.00 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 83% versus AFC Wimbledon 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 67% | AFC Wimbledon 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.42 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.895 / defence 1.188 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.987 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 0.994. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Stockport County games / 6 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 43% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 31%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Wimbledon 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 67% | AFC Wimbledon 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 43% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Stockport County 1.42 / AFC Wimbledon 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.895 / def 1.188 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.987 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.286 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.17
AFC Wimbledon xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Stockport County 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 43% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon in?
Stockport County (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (0.90) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.81
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.58
1.17
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.17 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County's recent record stands at 1W 1D 4L from 6 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 2L across 6 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AFC Wimbledon by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stockport County heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Stockport County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Early Season
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Stockport County's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.33 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Stockport County or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2026, when Stockport County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 5, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 67%, AFC Wimbledon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Stockport County and 33% for AFC Wimbledon.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 67%; AFC Wimbledon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Stockport County's recent matches and 33% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stockport County's recent games and 33% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.42 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.17 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 43% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 31%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 67%, AFC Wimbledon 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Stockport County winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.