Stockport County 4-2 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stockport County and Accrington ST meet at Edgeley Park in League Two, Regular Season - 45. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stockport County have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Stockport County's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Edgeley Park this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Edgeley Park this season.
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Accrington ST away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Stockport County's 2.60 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Accrington ST's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Accrington ST and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 50% versus Accrington ST 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 47% | Accrington ST 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.20 xG and Accrington ST 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.185 / defence 0.629 | Accrington ST attack 0.868 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.331. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stockport County's defence rating of 0.629 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 90 Stockport County games / 44 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 71% | Draw 18% | Accrington ST 11%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Accrington ST 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 40% | Accrington ST 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 71% | Draw 18% | Accrington ST 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 46% | xG Stockport County 2.20 / Accrington ST 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.185 / def 0.629 | Accrington ST attack 0.868 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Accrington ST xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Accrington ST kick off?
Stockport County vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Accrington ST?
Stockport County 4 - 2 Accrington ST.
Where is Stockport County vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Accrington ST part of?
Stockport County vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 71% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stockport County and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Accrington ST in?
Stockport County (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 1.19x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.87x) against Stockport County's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 90/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.53
11%
9.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.93
0.73
Accrington ST xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
9.24
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
1%
83.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.73 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stockport County come into this having played 90 games, going 48W 25D 17L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.09 PPG from 90 outings (26W 20D 44L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Stockport County's home form reads 25W 14D 5L across 44 games on their own ground, a 2.02 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.91 points per game from 44 outings (10W 10D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.08 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 48W 25D 17L in their last 90 games (1.88 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 26W 20D 44L in their last 90 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Accrington ST away?
Stockport County's home record (2.02 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.02 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Stockport County
0
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Accrington ST?
From 2 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Accrington ST have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Stockport County 4-2 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Accrington ST?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 39%, Accrington ST 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Stockport County) and 54% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Accrington ST in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stockport County's recent matches and 52% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Stockport County's recent games and 54% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Accrington ST 4-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.20 xG and Accrington ST 0.73 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Accrington ST outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.19 / defence 0.63 against Accrington ST attack 0.87 / defence 1.30, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 71% | Draw 18% | Accrington ST 11%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 47%, Accrington ST 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Accrington ST's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.