Stevenage 0-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Mansfield Town in League Two, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 10 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League Two record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at The Lamex Stadium this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Mansfield Town have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Stevenage's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mansfield Town's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Stevenage 0W, Mansfield Town 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Mansfield Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Mansfield Town 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 44% | Mansfield Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.83 xG and Mansfield Town 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.410 / defence 0.711 | Mansfield Town attack 1.011 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.093. Stevenage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Stevenage games / 66 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 62% | Draw 23% | Mansfield Town 15%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Mansfield Town 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Mansfield Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 62% | Draw 23% | Mansfield Town 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Stevenage 1.83 / Mansfield Town 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.410 / def 0.711 | Mansfield Town attack 1.011 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Mansfield Town xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 December 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Stevenage 0 - 0 Mansfield Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town part of?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 62% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stevenage and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.01x) against Stevenage's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.38
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.61
0.79
Mansfield Town xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
2%
40.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.79 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 24W 18D 24L from 66 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 32W 13D 21L across 66 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Stevenage against 1.65 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 18W 6D 9L from 33 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 13W 6D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.42 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 66 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 18D 24L in their last 66 games (1.36 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 32W 13D 21L in their last 66 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Mansfield Town away?
Stevenage's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.82 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stevenage
4
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 39%, Mansfield Town 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stevenage) and 48% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Mansfield Town in 30%; Mansfield Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stevenage's recent matches and 46% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stevenage's recent games and 48% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stevenage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Mansfield Town finished level at 0-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.83 xG and Mansfield Town 0.79 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.41 / defence 0.71 against Mansfield Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 62% | Draw 23% | Mansfield Town 15%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 44%, Mansfield Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.36 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.