Stevenage 3-0 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Harrogate Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Harrogate Town in League Two, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 29 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's home record at The Lamex Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Harrogate Town's overall League Two record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Harrogate Town's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Stevenage, 1.00 for Harrogate Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stevenage lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Harrogate Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 46% | Harrogate Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.48 xG and Harrogate Town 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.045 / defence 1.281 | Harrogate Town attack 0.866 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.160. Harrogate Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Stevenage games / 24 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 39% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 31%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Harrogate Town 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 60% | Harrogate Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 39% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Stevenage 1.48 / Harrogate Town 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.045 / def 1.281 | Harrogate Town attack 0.866 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Harrogate Town xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Stevenage 3 - 0 Harrogate Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Harrogate Town part of?
Stevenage vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 39% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Stevenage and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Harrogate Town?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 1 | Harrogate Town 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Harrogate Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 1.04x the league average against Harrogate Town's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.87x) against Stevenage's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 27/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.35
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.77
1.29
Harrogate Town xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
7%
14.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.29 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 4W 10D 10L from 24 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Harrogate Town, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 9L across 24 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Harrogate Town by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 4W 5D 3L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Harrogate Town's away record stands at 5W 2D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.58 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 24 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 4W 10D 10L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Harrogate Town away?
Stevenage's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.42 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stevenage won 3-0 on 29 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
2
Draws
0
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Harrogate Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Harrogate Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2023, when Harrogate Town 1-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Harrogate Town?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 58%, Harrogate Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stevenage) and 50% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stevenage's recent games and 50% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stevenage run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Harrogate Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Harrogate Town 3-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.48 xG and Harrogate Town 1.29 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Harrogate Town landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.04 / defence 1.28 against Harrogate Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.33, drawn from 27/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 39% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 31%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 46%, Harrogate Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Harrogate Town arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.