Stevenage 3-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 68% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Crawley Town meet at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League Two record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Crawley Town (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Stevenage 2W, Crawley Town 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 43% versus Crawley Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 43% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.94 xG and Crawley Town 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.285 / defence 0.666 | Crawley Town attack 0.870 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.132. Stevenage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.666 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Stevenage games / 68 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 68% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 12%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Crawley Town 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 20% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 68% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 41% | xG Stevenage 1.94 / Crawley Town 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.285 / def 0.666 | Crawley Town attack 0.870 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Crawley Town xG
41%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Crawley Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 December 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Stevenage 3 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Crawley Town part of?
Stevenage vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 68% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Stevenage and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Crawley Town?
Record (3 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Crawley Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (1.28) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.87x) against Stevenage's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
68%
1.48
21%
4.84
12%
8.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.59
0.66
Crawley Town xG
1.48
68%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
8.59
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
2%
59.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.66 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 24W 20D 24L from 68 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 30L across 68 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Stevenage against 1.21 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 17W 7D 9L from 33 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 8W 9D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.16 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 60%.
Last 68 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 20D 24L in their last 68 games (1.35 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 22W 16D 30L in their last 68 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Crawley Town away?
Stevenage's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.76 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Crawley Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Stevenage 3-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Crawley Town?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 39%, Crawley Town 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stevenage) and 54% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stevenage's recent matches and 64% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stevenage's recent games and 54% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Crawley Town 3-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.94 xG and Crawley Town 0.66 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.28 / defence 0.67 against Crawley Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.29, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 68% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 12%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 43%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.35 PPG, Crawley Town 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.