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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Walsall edge out Shrewsbury 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Shrewsbury 1-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.12 xG and Walsall 1.18 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Walsall outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Walsall attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 34% | Draw 28% | Walsall 37%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 46%, Walsall 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Walsall's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights