🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Salford City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Shrewsbury 1-3 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.56 xG and Salford City 1.19 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.55 / defence 1.01 against Salford City attack 1.03 / defence 0.86, drawn from 7/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 17% | Draw 31% | Salford City 52%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 47%, Salford City 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights