Shrewsbury vs Oldham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Oldham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Oldham travel to The Croud Meadow to take on Shrewsbury. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Shrewsbury have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at The Croud Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Oldham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oldham away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shrewsbury 1.10 PPG, Oldham 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shrewsbury, 0 for Oldham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Shrewsbury winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shrewsbury trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Oldham trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 42% versus Oldham 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 46% | Oldham 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.30 xG and Oldham 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.885 / defence 1.075 | Oldham attack 1.073 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Data: 50 Shrewsbury games / 50 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 29% | Oldham 35%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Oldham 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shrewsbury at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 40% | Oldham 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 29% | Oldham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Shrewsbury 1.30 / Oldham 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.885 / def 1.075 | Oldham attack 1.073 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Oldham xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Oldham kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Oldham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at The Croud Meadow.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Oldham part of?
Shrewsbury vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 36% chance of winning, Oldham a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shrewsbury and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Oldham?
Record (2 meetings): Shrewsbury 1W | Draws 1 | Oldham 0W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Oldham in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Oldham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.89x the league average against Oldham's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oldham's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
36%
2.78
29%
3.43
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.58
1.28
Oldham xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.28 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 14W 10D 26L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oldham's form line: 20W 15D 15L from 50 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Oldham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Oldham are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Oldham have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 1.34 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Early Season
Oldham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Oldham in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 14W 10D 26L in their last 50 games (1.04 PPG), while Oldham have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Oldham away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.44 PPG; Oldham away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Oldham in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Oldham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
0
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Oldham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Shrewsbury 1-0 Oldham.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Oldham?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 36%, Oldham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Shrewsbury) and 56% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Oldham in 36%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 32% of games; Oldham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 48% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 56% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Oldham tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Oldham in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.