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Shock result as Shrewsbury defy the odds to beat Newport County 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shrewsbury beat Newport County 1-0 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.00 xG and Newport County 1.30 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Newport County landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against Newport County attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 15/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 29% | Draw 28% | Newport County 43%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Shrewsbury win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 48%, Newport County 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Newport County's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.75 PPG, Newport County 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights