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Shock result as Shrewsbury defy the odds to beat Harrogate Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shrewsbury beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.86 xG and Harrogate Town 1.11 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.70 / defence 1.18 against Harrogate Town attack 0.77 / defence 0.96, drawn from 24/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 28% | Draw 31% | Harrogate Town 41%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Shrewsbury win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 47%, Harrogate Town 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.74 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights