🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shrewsbury and Grimsby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 19, as Shrewsbury and Grimsby drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.41 xG and Grimsby 1.60 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Grimsby attack 1.21 / defence 1.17, drawn from 18/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 34% | Draw 24% | Grimsby 42%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 48%, Grimsby 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Grimsby's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights