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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town finished level at 2-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.75 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.00 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shrewsbury beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fleetwood Town outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.82 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 26% | Draw 33% | Fleetwood Town 40%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 46%, Fleetwood Town 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fleetwood Town arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights