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Dominant Crewe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Shrewsbury 0-4 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.96 xG and Crewe 1.15 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Crewe outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Crewe attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 30% | Draw 30% | Crewe 40%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 46%, Crewe 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crewe's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights