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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shrewsbury edge out Crawley Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shrewsbury beat Crawley Town 1-0 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.32 xG and Crawley Town 0.96 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.74 / defence 1.12 against Crawley Town attack 0.73 / defence 1.33, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 45% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 27%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 47%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Crawley Town's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.72 PPG, Crawley Town 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights