🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Colchester cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Shrewsbury 0-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.92 xG and Colchester 1.00 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Colchester outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Colchester attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/48 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 31% | Draw 34% | Colchester 35%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 46%, Colchester 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Colchester's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Colchester arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights