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Prediction vindicated as Chesterfield edge out Shrewsbury 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.37 xG and Chesterfield 1.44 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Chesterfield attack 1.10 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 27% | Chesterfield 38%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 47%, Chesterfield 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Chesterfield's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights