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Cheltenham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cheltenham beat Shrewsbury 0-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.43 xG and Cheltenham 1.06 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cheltenham outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Cheltenham attack 0.90 / defence 1.31, drawn from 36/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 45% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 28%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cheltenham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 48%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (81 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cheltenham's trading profile (81 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.91 PPG, Cheltenham 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights